TBC Capital’s macroeconomic outlook: ‘2024 to be the year of normalized trends’
2024 looks to be the year of normalized macroeconomic trends, says TBC Capital’s latest macro and sectoral outlook released at the start of the year. With the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic well in the past and the impact of migration related to Russia’s war against Ukraine seemingly stabilizing, analysts foresee a year marked by economic growth levels, inflation, monetary policy, and the GEL exchange rate all returning to their long-term averages.
This trend is a continuation of normalization already observed in 2023 as diminishing external trade turnover, negatively affected by reduced international commodity prices, and somewhat flat migration-related inflows, as well as a return to more conventional tourism trends, saw real GDP growth of 6.7% (down from double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022) and a broader stabilization of the GEL exchange rate.
Real Estate
Migration-related increases in demand, GEL appreciation, and an increase of construction costs all contributed to a boom in Tbilisi’s real estate market in 2022; these factors largely faded in the second half of 2023 as the market stabilized. In 2024, TBC Capital expects that the number of transactions and average prices of residential real estate will continue to stabilize. Fundamental drivers, such as urbanization, the reduction of household sizes, large size of outdated existing property, a positive outlook on salary growth, high rental yields, and an anticipated reduction of interest rates will support this stabilized demand in 2024.
FMCG
Revenues in Georgia’s organized fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market grew by 25% YoY in the first nine months of 2023. As no one-off events (like the increased migrant inflows in 2022) were observed in 2023 and inflation stabilized, this growth is mostly attributable to further expansion of the organized FMCG market in terms of increased regional penetration and increased presence in the capital. This growth is also backed by increased natural demand as average wages increased in 2023.
In 2024, TBC Capital expects these trends to continue and forecasts that the organized FMCG market will continue to outgrow the overall market (including the unorganized market) and reach 36% of total market turnover. The overall FMCG market is expected to reach 24.4 billion GEL in value.
Electricity
For the first time in recent history, 2022 marked the first year when Georgia’s electricity generation exceeded its overall consumption on an annual basis – a trend that continued in 2023. Going forward, TBC Capital expects that domestic consumption will stabilize with around 5% annual growth in the medium term, in line with expected economic growth.
According to the GSE, if all expected energy projects become operational within their existing schedules, the total installed capacity of Georgian power plants is expected to reach 5,870 MW, a 28% increase in the medium term, which will help contribute to a continued positive balance in energy generation compared to consumption.
